Condolezza for Vice-President?

NCM Online, Paolo Pontoniere, Posted: May 17, 2002

European media began this week to speculate about the next campaign for the US presidency. Particularly in Britain and in Italy, newspapers and magazines reported on the possibility of Condolezza Rice reincarnating as a vice presidential candidate in 2004. European reporters considered this a potentially brilliant political move, which, in their opinion, could easily carry President Bush to re-election.

According to European observers, Rice is the quintessential product of the American Dream, and of the African-American civil rights movement. Born in Birmingham, Alabama, during segregationist times to a Presbyterian pastor, she was raised with the belief that if one stays in school, works hard, and trusts in God one can achieve anything. She speaks four languages, is an accomplished pianist, and a strong athlete. Driven to excellence in everything she did, she devoted herself to foreign policy when she concluded that she would never become a world renowned musician-- though recently she performed with great ease with cellist Yo-Yo Ma--or a sports champion, though during her years as professor and provost at Stanford University, she was known to train with the best athletes.

Rice was originally called to the White House from Stanford University--where at the time she was teaching-by then-President George H. Bush to advise him on the then-Soviet Union. After that stint, she returned to Stanford as the youngest provost in the university's history. Many credit Rice with having spurred Stanford University to educational excellence and with having contributed to diversifying its faculty and student body.

Named after a very smooth musical movement, con dolcezza, Rice, since her return to the White House with George W. Bush, has emerged as the most hawkish member of the cabinet and has become the most influential National Security Adviser since Henry Kissinger. Analysts credit her with having crafted US policy on Russia, the Balkans, and Israel, and having developed the "Axis of Evil" concept expounded by President Bush in one of his recent speeches.

Assuming that Dick Cheney will not run again in 2004, either for health reasons or because he may be scapegoated for the Enron fiasco, Condoleezza Rice would be the first African-American and the second woman-Italian-American Geraldine Ferraro was the first-to run on a major party's presidential ticket.

Europeans believe that, unlike Ferraro, or even Elizabeth Dole who sought the Republican presidential nomination in 1999, Rice could really grab the support of women and African-American voters for Bush. Rice as a candidate would no doubt steal the thunder away from any other conventional ticket and would challenge popular wisdom which has held that the first woman or African-American in the White House would have been a Democrat.

While clearly hawkish when it comes to foreign policy, Rice by her own admission is "a pro-choice evangelical," with libertarian views on other issues, too. While alienating the Christian right, and the more conservative Republican base, this stance would almost win her at least part of the feminist vote. In addition, European analysts point out that the White House Project, a women's advocacy group that wants to get a woman in the White House by 2008, has revealed that Elizabeth Dole during her failed candidacy attracted the vote of women who didn't even share her political point of view. However, as the European journalists point out, views on abortion have never determined who wins in a US presidential election.

A Condoleezza Rice candidacy would almost certainly electrify the black vote. In such a campaign, African-Americans might well see an occasion to seize history and to situate one of their own in a pole position for the presidency in 2008.

Two years is a lifetime in politics, however, and Europeans caution that the Democrats may have a few tricks up their sleeve too--for example, a Gore-Clinton ticket. The allure of having Hilary run for vice president would almost certainly neutralize some of Rice's potential. Hilary Clinton has a good standing with African-Americans and with women voters. In addition, her presence on a presidential ticket would allow Democrats to bank on the magic of a past administration that brought America eight years of unparalleled prosperity.

Sources: Panorama, Radio Netherlands, The Guardian

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