New Poll Shows Racial, Ethnic Splits Among California Voters
Survey of California Voters Provides Insight Into Groups That Often Underrepresented in Statewide Political Polls
Sponsored by NCM, Pew Hispanic Center, USC Annenberg, The Tomás Rivera Policy Institute and The Community Technology Foundation, Posted: Sep 25, 2003
LOS ANGELES – The California electorate is sharply split along racial and ethnic lines with Latino, African American, Asian American and white voters expressing distinctly different views of the recall, of Gov. Gray Davis’ performance in office, of the candidates seeking to replace him and of the racial classification initiative (Proposition 54).
These are among the major findings of the 2003 Multilingual Survey of California Voters, an in-depth survey of registered voters with large samples of racial and ethnic groups that typically represent small fractions of respondents in statewide polls. The survey was conducted Sept. 6-16, 2003, by the public opinion firm Bendixen & Associates for a partnership of four organizations: USC Annenberg’s Institute for Justice and Journalism, the Pew Hispanic Center, New California Media and The Tomás Rivera Policy Institute.The Recall Election
Hispanics (45% support vs. 47% oppose) and Asian Americans (44% support vs. 46% oppose) are closely split on whether Gov. Gray Davis should be removed from office, while blacks oppose the recall by a wide margin (65% vs. 23%) and whites favor the recall (56% vs. 35%). In the contest to replace Davis, should the recall succeed, Latinos (57%) were more than twice as likely as whites (22%) or Asian Americans (25%) to say they will vote for Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and more than three times as likely as African Americans (17%). A similar split emerged when respondents were asked whether they had a positive or negative attitude toward Bustamante, with 41% of African Americans expressing negative views, while 67% of Latinos expressed positive views.
Support for Arnold Schwarzenegger varied widely. Asian Americans (22%) and whites (20%) said he would get their vote in about equal measures – at about the same level as Bustamante – while support among Latinos (13%) and blacks (7%) was significantly lower.
"Some very clear differences along racial and ethnic lines emerge from this survey, notably between Latinos and blacks,” said Pew Hispanic Center Director Roberto Suro. “Whether they are peculiar to this election or reflect more fundamental divides will be critical to California's political future."
The Views of Latinos
By including interviews with a large sample of Latinos in both English (48% of the sample) and Spanish (52%), the survey was able to explore the range of views within this segment of the electorate. Substantial differences emerged between English- and Spanish-speaking Latinos. For example, English speakers were more than twice as likely (40% vs. 16%) as Spanish speakers to say Davis is doing a poor job as governor. English speakers also were more likely to say they would vote to recall Davis (51% vs. 39%). Bustamante drew greater support among Spanish speakers (66%) than among English speakers (47%). And more Spanish speakers had negative views of Schwarzenegger (65%) than did English speakers (52%). In contrast, no substantial differences according to language preferences emerged in Latinos’ views of Proposition 54.
Nearly half (49%) of Latinos said that Schwarzenegger’s support for Proposition 187 – the 1994 initiative that would have denied social services to undocumented immigrants – and his alliance with former governor and Prop. 187 backer Pete Wilson affected their opinion negatively, with Spanish speakers (59%) more likely to express that view than English speakers (37%).
"Contrary to the pundits' prediction that Schwarzenegger's support among Latinos will come from the male youth vote, the poll reveals that his support among likely Latino voters (13%) comes primarily from those registered as Republicans," said Harry Pachon, president of The Tomás Rivera Policy Institute, citing his institute’s further analysis of the survey findings.
Proposition 54
Substantial numbers of California voters are still undecided or say they are not aware of Proposition 54, a ballot initiative that would amend the California Constitution to prohibit the collection and use of various kinds of racial and ethnic information by the state, local governments and schools. However, Latinos (46%), African Americans (41%) and Asian Americans (42%) are expressing more support for Prop. 54 than whites (31%). The presentation of three arguments on each side of the debate did not produce any significant shifts in respondents’ views.
“The message for opponents of Proposition 54 is loud and clear. They’re not getting across to the very groups that they’re counting on most to defeat the measure,” said Sandy Close, executive director of New California Media.
Race Relations
Views of race relations also reveal substantial divisions, with Latinos and Asian Americans seeing improvement but whites and blacks expressing more pessimism; 44% of both Latinos and Asian Americans said race relations in California are improving, but only 34% of whites and 24% of African Americans expressed similar views. A majority of Latinos (57%) and Asian Americans (59%) also see prospects for economic improvement, while African Americans are
notably less optimistic: 29% said opportunities are worsening, and 45% said they are staying the same. Asked whether they need government protection against discrimination, substantial majorities of blacks (81%), Latinos (76%) and Asian Americans (69%) say they do.
“Race and language both matter, and discrimination remains an important issue in California, but the real significance of this kind of polling is its value as a tool for hearing and understanding the full range of voices that will shape California’s future,” said Steve Montiel, director of USC Annenberg’s Institute for Justice and Journalism.
Use of the Media
Significant percentages of Latinos (30%) and Asian Americans (39%) say they prefer receiving their news in a language other than English. Among Spanish-speaking respondents, 57% said they prefer Spanish-language media, while 31% said they prefer English-language media, indicating substantial bilingualism in this segment of the Latino population.
At least two-thirds of all respondents say they depend on some form of television for news that shapes their voting decisions, with about 15% of Latinos, African Americans and whites and only 8% of Asian Americans saying they rely on newspapers. More than half of all respondents rate media coverage of the recall and issues important to them as good or excellent.
Methodology
The 2003 Multilingual Survey of California Voters is comprised of four separate samples of California’s major racial and ethnic groups:
- 600 Hispanics, who were interviewed in Spanish and English (margin of error: +/- 4.1%)
- 504 African Americans, who were interviewed in English (margin of error: +/- 4.5%)
- 254 whites, who were interviewed in English (margin of error: +/- 6.0%)
- 250 Asian Americans, who were interviewed in English, Cantonese, Mandarin, Vietnamese or Korean (margin of error: +/- 6.3%). Quotas were established for the Asian sample so that it is representative of the major Asian American ethnic groups in California’s electorate.
"This study made a great effort to interview immigrant voters,” said Sergio Bendixen, president of Miami-based public opinion firm Bendixen & Associates, which conducted the survey. “The poll was conducted in six different languages and dialects and is unprecedented in the history of California political polling."
The 2003 Multilingual Survey of California Voters was not constructed to illustrate the potential outcome of a statewide vote or to map the preferences of the electorate as a whole. Rather, the sampling design allows for an accurate and in-depth analysis of the views within California’s multiethnic electorate. In addition to a report released Sept. 25, the survey data (“toplines”) are available from any of the organizational sponsors listed below.
The 2003 Multilingual Survey of California Voters was supported by a partnership of four sponsoring organizations:
The Institute for Justice and Journalism
created at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication with Ford Foundation funding in 2000. It offers professional fellowships, research and other resources to strengthen news coverage and public understanding of justice and civil rights issues. Contact: Steve Montiel, director, (213) 743-4997 (smontiel@usc.edu) or Bobby Kirkwood, (213) 743-4998.
The Pew Hispanic Center
a nonpartisan research organization based in Washington, D.C. It is a project of the USC Annenberg School for Communication with a mission to improve understanding of the diverse Hispanic population in the U.S. and to chronicle Latinos’ growing impact on the nation. Contact: Regina Aragón, (510) 393-9435 on the day of release or Roberto Suro, director, (202) 292-3307 (info@pewhispanic.org).
NCM: New California Media
an association of more than 600 ethnic news organizations, launched multilingual polling in 2002 with Bendixen & Associates to give voice to ethnic media audiences. NCM’s sponsor for the 2003 Multilingual Survey of California Voters is California Technology Foundation. Contact: Sandy Close, executive director, (415) 503-4170 (sclose@pacificnews.org) or Gloria Rubio-Cortes, CTFC, (415) 371-8808.
The Tomás Rivera Policy Institute
an affiliated research unit of the University of Southern California through the School of Policy, Planning and Development. The institute, established in 1985, is nationally recognized for its objective policy research on issues affecting the Hispanic community. Contact: Harry Pachon, president, (213) 821-5615 (pachon@usc.edu).
CONTACTS:
Steve Montiel, IJJ, (213) 743-4997
Regina Aragón, PHC, (510) 393-9435
Sandy Close, NCM, (415) 503-4170
Andrea Gutierrez, TRPI, (213) 821-5615
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User Comments
Ruben on Sep 25, 2003 at 04:20:59 said:
We've been out of touch for some time, though I follow PNS/NCM as always. I wanted to congratulate you on the NCM poll. At a time when the vast majority of mainstream media has no clue as the complexity and nuances of the actual-- rather than the imagined-- California, this analysis finally brings to life what everyone else only pays lipservice to: our diversity. For once, I recognize the California that I know in a poll.
-->I am very proud, as always, to be part of the PNS/NCM family.
I'm in Houston, settling into my teaching position, which has its pros and cons but mostly pros (the humid head of the Gulf summer is not one of the latter). I'm editing my new book, a companion to a PBS series called The New Americans (immigrants to America from Palestine, Mexico, India, Nigeria and the Dominican Republic), my work basically an extended essay on American immigration history.
And I'm starting my new book-- an exploration of the new Desert Southwest, about water and drought and migrants and poor whites and crystal meth and pollution and sprawl, a big thing.
I'm afraid I'm going to miss this year's NCM Expo because of the teaching committment. But I'll be mostly in California from mid-December to mid-August and I'm sure I'll be in the Bay Area at some point, and do keep me apprised of your visits to SoCal.
Keep those polls coming!