Critical March 20 Vote Last Stand for Taiwan Independence?
Sing Tao Daily, News Feature, Compiled and translated by Franz Schurmann, Posted: Feb 26, 2004
For several years in the late 1950s people throughout the world knew the word Taiwan as spelling the unavoidable outbreak of World War III. Now, well over a half of a century later, the same enemies, China and Taiwan, face each other with large quantities of weapons of mass destruction ready to open fire if given the order to do so. But, hardly anyone now shudders about World War III.
The simple reason for then and now is that in 1958 America and China were on the verge of going to war with each other. But now, while China has not changed its demands for the return of Taiwan to the Chinese homeland, America now has soured on Taiwan. Late last year President George W. Bush, with new Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao at his side, warned both Taiwan and mainland China not to upset the calm in the Taiwan Straits. But it was clear all over the world that the only target of his warning was Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian a.k.a. Ah-bian, as he is called in Taiwan.
Taiwan has been heavily dependent on American material and moral support since 1949 and still is. Ah-bian won the Taiwan presidency on March 20, 2000. He was one of the founders of the now ruling group, the Democratic People's Party (DPP). The DPP has its origins in the great Taiwan rebellion of February 1948 that was bloodily put down by the Kuomintang (KMT) that had ruled China from 1928 till the Communist revolutionaries ousted it in 1949. The KMT then fled to Taiwan. From 1949 till 1979 it still called itself the only legitimate government of China.
The formal founding of the DPP didn't occur until 1986. In 1989 the Tiananmen massacre in Beijing had a deep impact on it. In the 1990's the DPP developed a conviction that Taiwan had to secede from China. This is the origin of the current tensions between Taiwan and China.
Ah-Bian's victory in the March 2000 presidential race was due to a political fluke. When the KMT dictatorship started to disintegrate in the late 1980's, democratic politics flourished in Taiwan. The disintegration came to its acme in 1999 and early 2000 when KMT factions ran several candidates for the March 20, 2000. As a result, Ah-Bian won the presidency with only 39 percent of the vote.
But the DPP by then had developed a political ideology that split the 23 million inhabitants of Taiwan but infuriated most Chinese outside of Taiwan. The DPP claimed that the "Taiwanese" were not "Chinese" even though they spoke a Chinese dialect identical with that of southern Fujian across the Taiwan Straits. But what the DPP really wanted was Taiwan secession.
In November-December 2000, the American presidency wasn't decided until 38 days later. The DPP exulted when Bush was declared the winner because the new president had said he was going to take a hard-line vis-à-vis China. When Bush took over the presidency, U.S.-China relations worsened and that encouraged the DPP to prepare for secession.
But after 9/11 the Bush White House realized what all presidents, starting from Nixon through Clinton, whether Republican or Democrat, that China was fast becoming the world's third super-power after the United States and Russia. In fact the Bush White House began to sense a deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations and started seeing China as replacing Russia as the second super-power.
Last year, as March 20, 2004, the date of Taiwan's presidential election, came closer and closer Ah-Bian realized that Taiwan could no longer count on the super-power United States to balance it against super-power China. He proposed an island-wide referendum denouncing China's military stance towards Taiwan. What Ah-Bian didn't grasp is that while super-powers are rivals they also cooperate to keep world peace because peace leads to worldwide prosperity. The editorialist of the Overseas Chinese Sing Tao Daily (STD) of February 23 warned: "In the forthcoming Taiwan election the referendum Chen Shui-bian has concocted is playing with fire that will not gain support from the US." Indeed, Washington has denounced the referendum.
The referendum and the vote for president occur on the same day, March 20. There are only two significant contenders, Chen Shui-bian and Lien Chan. The latter is the head of the shrunken KMT. But all the main splinter groups agreed to support Lien. And, to boot, they control the National Assembly. Opponents claim Ah-Bian's referendum is not legal, and the Mayor of Taipei has announced that he will not distribute votes for the referendum on the voting day. So long as they refuse to judge the referendum they leave Chen dangling in the wind.
In a side story representing Ah-Bian's struggle to recruit allies, the Chinese-language media recounted a story about a meeting in Panama (that has diplomatic relations with Taiwan) between Ah-Bian and the actor Sean Connery The Taiwan media noted that Connery's handshake with Chen was unusually warm. Rumors than spread in Taiwan that "007" was coming on February 28 to join in a human chain going up and down the island.
But Sean Connery said he instead would be going to the Oscars.
NCM Coverage: Chinese Media Watch
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User Comments
DAVID POUGH on Mar 09, 2004 at 06:31:14 said:
u.s.a. will not fight protect or defend taiwan from red china attack. taiwan must realize she is on her own. she needs to start takeing all that money and building up a powerful military to protect its people-land- and all its great accomplishments. i wish her luck and GOD\'s blessing. i am so sorry to say we americans only care about our playstation games--wake-up stand-up and defend yourself..i know you can do it.
signed---I\'M SERIOUS---
joe on Mar 01, 2004 at 03:24:11 said:
Taiwan historically in Chinese Territory...a lot longer than Taiwan's sovereignty claim now. Taiwan is not like the US and the UK. Democracy...it has become a "US name brand" for bashing others. The aim of any nation is to feed, cloth and improve the lots of its people, either under name of Democracy, Socialist, Communism or Ballony-ism. Like medicines, you dont take penacillin for a arthritis & dont take viagra for chest pain. Democracy can't prescribe for all ill's & there're different forms so Democracies. Democracy did'nt work too well for India, Panama, or Russia! Democracy is good for countries who are developed & strong. Democracies favors very small changes. If weak & disorganized nations develop democracies, then it favors very minute changes and result is it stays fragile. US favors this to stay on top. I believe each country decides how much democracy it needs. Right now China has enuf democracy to grow into a great power & it is a winner. I dont see Chinese people crying to overthrow China? People love winners. The US & Taiwan is using democracy as a device weaken Chinese sovereignty and to contain China. Remember I can use a coin to turn a screw instead of a screw driver. I didnt bring a screw driver doesnt mean I cant take the screws out. A-Bian dont rock a sinking boat. Taiwan's status at its peak with status quo...just enjoy it... instead of fighting certain eventual reunification. To the West Taiwan is a bargaining chip. Like HK, no China no HK, no China no Taiwan. By the way I'm not a Commi...but just a pragmatist.
Hank on Feb 27, 2004 at 02:03:18 said:
Dear Editor:
The so-called February 28 Incident most certainly did not occur in 1948, as stated. It occurred the year before, on February 27th, in fact, but for historical reason the 28th is accepted as the "trigger date".
Moreover, President Chen Shui-bian belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), not the non-existent Democratic People's Party.
These major errors of facts, unfortunately, highlight the overall sloppiness of this Sing Tao Daily opinion piece.
Best regards,
(signed)
Tai-chung, TAIWAN
Tsang Kwong Piu on Feb 27, 2004 at 00:09:16 said:
An excellent background briefing, I
don't think anyone in the West knows better about the Taiwan Straits than you. As you
say, Ah Bian is playing with fire, but he has no choice, as the economy was handled so
badly under his rule and his last card is CCP's stupidity, which fired missiles to
threaten the Taiwanese but actually pushed them to vote for Bian.
The KMT has long been corrupted but the DPP corrupted in at high speed in recent
years, a Taiwan friend says and it is so true.
The businessmen in Taiwan, many of them with business in the Mainland, have made up their mind to dump Bian, but the middle classs is
waiting for further signal from America, I believe the trade is the appreciation of
the Chinese Yuan a stronger signal to the Taiwan people from Bush to kick Ah Bian out.
Tsang Kwong Piu, editor, Hong Kong Economic
Times
Me on Feb 26, 2004 at 21:28:42 said:
Could this article be more biased in favor of the Chinese Communist Party's postion?
JC on Feb 26, 2004 at 16:45:41 said:
President Chen is doing what every incumbent in his position would be doing in order to stay in office. However, it is the shortsighted method the he chose which undermines the relative harmony of Taiwanese society in the last forty-five years--the ethnicity issue.
I believe all of the political parties in Taiwan have abused the democratic spirit. Rather than bolstering the NATIONAL identity, the election campaign and its associative activities has decidedly split the country along ethnic lines. Repeating what took place in the former Yugoslavia would be tragic, indeed.
Michael Fahey on Feb 26, 2004 at 13:31:05 said:
This report contains a number of serious inaccuracies. The Mayor of Taipei opposes the referendum but Taipei will distribute ballots. The DPP never decided to secede from the PRC. The DPP maintains that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country which has never bee a part of the PRC. There is no issue of 'secession' since a country cannot secede from a country it has never been part of.
The DPP holds that Taiwan is culturally Chinese, but politically independent much as the US is culturally European but politically independent from the UK
Taiwan is a small but prosperous democracy whilst China is a huge, totalitarian state that refuses to renounce the use of force against its tiny neighbor. It will be a sad day not just for Taiwan, but also for the cause of democracy in Asia and elsewhere if Taiwan is forced to unify with China.
Joe on Feb 26, 2004 at 04:56:32 said:
Taiwan\'s A-Bian is not a clever guy. The status quo would keep it peaceful. Whatever he does doesnt matter, because physically Taiwan is close to China. He only invigorates China\'s 1.3 bil to support for uniting by force. China like any country is sensitive about territorial sovereignty. The Russians would of loved to take back Alaska. Too late. France would like to take back Louisiana Territory. The Chinese know that land is invaluable. China is willing to reck economy to take land back. A economy can improve, but a country can not buy land. The US knows this well and will not likely to enter into war with a nuclear force. In event that China-Taiwan war boils over and the US participates. N. Korea may take the opportunity to take over S. Korea on a united front. With all military force in Korea and the Pacific Fleet, there\'s a danger of nuking that US force and the Pacific Fleet. There is imminent danger to US forward base. China does not have a forward base so retaliation to its forward base is no option. If nukes retaliate to the mainlands of bothsides, then we all die. The Ruskies are not fond of US or China and they might do something crazy with their nukes.
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